Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.841047 0.982865 1.141051 1.330564 1.551464 1.800869 2.103933
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.608627 0.794818 1.026249 1.335042 1.736460 2.241001 2.924130
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.478223 0.675935 0.941369 1.323758 1.860958 2.589657 3.655181
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.393830 0.593625 0.879178 1.317008 1.972102 2.917450 4.388870
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.337663 0.538042 0.840332 1.329460 2.102232 3.278560 5.210933
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.281604 0.471581 0.772365 1.283067 2.130138 3.482577 5.813957
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.263401 0.461507 0.789253 1.370655 2.378611 4.059256 7.086213
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.226149 0.413229 0.735615 1.331247 2.407138 4.274691 7.777870
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.194460 0.369564 0.683050 1.284704 2.414006 4.449411 8.415452
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.168971 0.333246 0.638111 1.244599 2.424924 4.629038 9.080543
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.155260 0.317139 0.627957 1.267652 2.555973 5.043783 10.241580
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.150097 0.316996 0.647994 1.351585 2.815488 5.733888 12.031121
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.139978 0.305790 0.645593 1.391932 2.996840 6.301264 13.668121
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.127717 0.288402 0.628440 1.399627 3.112392 6.752052 15.129903
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.115372 0.268944 0.604099 1.387970 3.183704 7.117090 16.453143
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.104912 0.252175 0.583251 1.380903 3.263611 7.509702 17.890430
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.097095 0.240400 0.571948 1.393959 3.390919 8.023411 19.676710
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.086121 0.219458 0.536662 1.345320 3.365673 8.182523 20.640366
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.084820 0.222216 0.557961 1.437148 3.693753 9.217482 23.889954
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.076076 0.204796 0.527717 1.395832 3.683681 9.430268 25.099095
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.067935 0.187787 0.496258 1.347036 3.647659 9.573409 26.147589
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.061019 0.173081 0.468792 1.304991 3.623641 9.743896 27.292383
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.057746 0.167955 0.465916 1.329159 3.781844 10.411701 29.885240